![]() We receive the next release on the same day as the Q3 22 CPI on 26 October 2022. The indicator rose by 6.8%/yr to August 2022 (the annual rate stepped down from 7.0%/yr in July 2022) – see here.īased on the monthly CPI data we expect the Q3 22 CPI to increase by 1.6%/qtr which would take the annual rate to 7.0% (this is marginally higher than our previously published preliminary forecast of 1.5%/qtr and 6.9%/yr). The data was only released partially which limits the capacity of economists to fully dissect the information. The data covered the months of July and August 2022. I’m no economist, my friends would also point out I don’t know math good, but isn’t that two months? Meanwhile, macro-wise at home the official office of numbers (ABS) delivered the entirely oxymoronic monthly CPI data – for the July and August. Now, I know I’m not a central banker – or British – but why buy unlimited bonds for a fortnight, while instigating a whack of quantative tightening – ‘cos the BoE says it will continue as planned the trimming of the phat from its obscenely reddened balance sheet (by some £80bn).īelinda Allen at CBA notes that this BoE intervention did settle yields – and give our markets a tidy bump on Thursday – but what’s that matter when the market pricing for rate hikes by the BoE at the next meeting remain very, very, very, very large – full Volcker territory ie: ~ 100bp. In any case, the GBP took a hammering while yields on UK government bonds surged like Floridian tides.Įnter the Bank of England (BoE) screaming and shouting it’ll buy infinity number of long-term government bonds to ‘restore orderly market conditions’. They thought a few mega tax cuts for the plump and privileged would light a new fire under searing UK inflation, super charge UK government debt, roil markets, pound the pound … (pauses for breath) … trigger intervention from the central bank, get hate mail from the IMF and fulfil the sweetest dreams of secret overlord and master of Muppets, Vlad Putin. I didn’t even think they’d be doing anything with such vigour post-HRM. Who knew we’d be pinning this week’s woes on to the genii behind the new British “mini-budget.” ” – William Shakespeare, (likely drunk and trying to impress the new King… ringing any bells? ) Richard II This blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England. This precious stone set in the silver sea, This happy breed of men, this little world, This fortress built by Nature for herself This earth of majesty, this seat of Mars, “This royal throne of kings, this sceptred isle, This is the Emerging Companies XEC index over the September quarter: Via Market Index That’s a hell of a lot of work, for very little return: This is the ASX 200 over the September quarter just ended: Via Market Index The ASX 200 has ended the week 3.1% lower.
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